How Human Error Is Driving the Wars in the Middle East | Opinion

Israel’s ongoing war against Iranian proxy forces across multiple fronts has been characterized by daring operations and tragic human errors. From Hamas’ cross-border attack to the Israeli military’s bold hostage rescues, and from Houthi missiles hitting Tel Aviv to Israel’s remote detonation of Hezbollah commanders’ pagers, these events have significantly shaped the conflict. Yet, at the core of these operations is a common thread: human error.
The repeated tactical failures on both sides suggest an urgent need to reassess strategies. As reliance on technology and data grows, the importance of human judgment must not be overlooked. Scientific fields and surveys acknowledge uncertainty through concepts like the “margin of error.” This principle, based largely on the groundbreaking work of British physicist John William Strutt (Lord Rayleigh), emphasizes the importance of understanding and quantifying uncertainties.
One of the most painful examples of human error came on Oct. 7, when the Startup Nation was caught unprepared by Hamas’ attack. Despite early warnings from female soldiers stationed at Gaza’s border, their concerns were ignored, leading to devastating consequences. It took weeks for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to fully mobilize, a failure that exposed critical vulnerabilities. This was a fiasco for both the military and the diplomats, who should have been more alert to the threat.
Even Israel’s advanced missile defense systems, such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling, are vulnerable to human error. This was evident on July 19, when a Ukrainian man was killed in a drone attack on Tel Aviv, launched by Houthi forces from Yemen. Many were shocked by how easily an Iranian-made weapon breached Israel’s defenses. Just weeks later, a Houthi missile landed in an open area between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Though Israel’s missile defense systems were activated, a fragment from an interceptor struck a train station in Modiin, raising further questions about whether lessons were being learned.
Human error is not exclusive to one side. Hamas severely misjudged Israel’s retaliatory response following the atrocities committed on Oct. 7.
A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reveals that 57 percent of Gazans now believe the Oct. 7 attack on Israel was a mistake. Only 37 percent think Hamas will continue governing Gaza after the war, and just 36 percent want the group to retain power. It is clear these are not the outcomes Hamas expected. How could they have miscalculated so gravely?
More than 80 percent of Palestinians in Gaza have been displaced, with many now living in tents.
Hezbollah, which has been launching rockets at Israel’s northern cities for years, also made a critical miscalculation. Encouraged by the ongoing conflict, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon overlooked one of Israel’s most daring and technically sophisticated operations. The pager plot, which killed 37 Hezbollah fighters and wounded more than 3,400, was a significant failure in Hezbollah’s planning.
This story will be discussed for years to come, from talk shows to family dinner tables. Hezbollah’s technical errors likely exceeded any margin of error they anticipated. Israel, meanwhile, has carried out phone-based assassinations for years, though it has not officially acknowledged responsibility for these actions.
While human error is unavoidable, it can be anticipated. This requires implementing fail-safe systems, building redundancy, critically questioning assumptions, and using “red teaming,” where teams deliberately challenge strategies to uncover weaknesses. The aim is to see the big picture and prevent errors from leading to catastrophic consequences.
Ultimately, it is overconfidence and a lapse in human reasoning that have caused the errors we face today. These mistakes have been deadly for all sides. True victory will come when we stop repeating these errors.
Felice Friedson is president and CEO of The Media Line news agency and founder of the Press and Policy Student Program, the Mideast Press Club, and Women’s Empowerment Program. She can be reached at [email protected].
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.